A four-wave study suggests crisis stress can look stable on average while splitting into sharply different personal trajectories.
This study followed young adults. Average scores stayed stable. Individual paths diverged sharply.
Quick summary
- What the study found: The paper Stress, Anxiety, Depression, and Positive Mental Health During Times of COVID-19 and War in Ukraine: A Four-Wave Longitudinal Study in Lithuania and Germany followed 432 young adults from Lithuania and Germany across four measurement points. Average mental health indicators did not change, but two different symptom trajectories appeared.
- Why it matters: Most participants showed decreasing depression, anxiety, and stress, while a smaller high-symptom group showed substantial increases and lower positive mental health.
- What to be careful about: These are longitudinal links, not proof of causation. The sample was mostly female young adults, so the pattern may not generalise broadly.
Average scores hid two very different paths
The headline result was not a simple rise in distress across the study period. On average, stress, anxiety, depression, and positive mental health showed no clear change.
Latent class analysis, a statistical method for grouping similar change patterns, told a different story. It separated participants into a low-symptom group and a high-symptom group.
About 76.4% were in the low-symptom group, where depression, anxiety, and stress decreased. About 23.6% were in the high-symptom group, where symptoms rose and positive mental health fell.
Positive mental health mattered for later stress
Positive mental health means more than low distress. In this paper, it refers to a separate indicator of mental well-being, not just the absence of anxiety or depression.
Better positive mental health before the pandemic and during the second pandemic outbreak predicted lower stress one year later. The paper suggests this may be a useful resilience marker.
Higher anxiety before the pandemic and during the release of pandemic restrictions predicted higher stress one year later. That link also needs cautious reading, because prediction is not causation.
Where this shows up in ordinary life
During prolonged disruption, averages can hide unequal strain. A campus, workplace, or friend group may look okay overall while a smaller group is worsening.
Two people can face the same headlines and restrictions, yet move in different directions mentally. One may settle; another may become more anxious, stressed, and depleted.
The practical idea is modest. When life stays unpredictable, signs of anxiety and positive well-being may both deserve attention, rather than focusing only on visible stress.
How to read this without overusing it
These findings should not be used to label someone as resilient or fragile. The study reports group patterns, not a personal forecast for any one reader.
The anxiety, depression, and stress indicators are research measures. They should not be treated as clinical diagnoses or as proof that a crisis harmed a specific person.
If symptoms feel intense, persistent, or unsafe, this article is not enough. It is a reason to seek appropriate professional or emergency support where needed.
What remains unclear
The abstract does not specify all measures, timing details, or mechanisms behind the two trajectories. It also does not show whether targeted interventions changed outcomes.
The sample was 432 young adults from Lithuania and Germany, and 76.4% were female. That limits how confidently the pattern applies to other ages or settings.
Careful takeaway: overlapping crises did not move everyone the same way. Earlier anxiety and positive mental health may help explain who later reports more stress.